As the coronavirus pandemic worsens, engulfing Europe, America, and India in particular, other places like Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Taiwan seem to have gotten a handle on the cases that first spread outward from China. Yet, as the global death toll passes 320,000, the prospect of a second wave in the fall is almost certain, and more and more countries will impose social distancing and national lockdown.

Our baseline projection is that the epidemic will last until the end of next year, with the economic depression lasting longer. We are all trying to cope with the new normal and the black swans potentially to come